Part 2: The anticipated effect of the new system on future Panda investment and Pandas of the past.
Over past years, the price for gold Pandas has not closely reflected the gold price at all, but under the new price mechanism prices will constantly be changing, reducing potential premiums to less than 10%.
Recent years have seen the market price for new gold Pandas fall. The Panda series that have felt this most acutely are those issued since 2011 up to the present. For all of them, currently their market value is below the release value, and this year’s prices are the lowest.
Comparatively speaking, the new method for setting prices will have practically no effect on the older Panda gold coins from specific years. For example, when issued the 2001 Panda gold set was valued at 4980 yuan, and now has a value of 32800 yuan; a similar 2002 set had an issue price of 5100 yuan, and now has a value in excess of 50000 yuan.
The gold Panda coins of the past still rely heavily on their value to numismatists and collectors rather than their bullion investment potential. Based on prices quoted at a coin, stamp, and card market in Tianxin, the current value of the 1995 and 1998 gold Panda sets has now passed 100000 yuan, yet their prices at the point of issue were barely 1000 yuan. This is largely down to their value to collectors. This kind of trend has been seen throughout the market for many years in the past.
Experts seem to be of the opinion that even though the new CGCI system has tried to reduce the value to collectors of gold Panda coins, at the same time making the market more open to smaller bullion investors, it will not truly achieve this since there is still an upper limit on mintages, therefore protecting the value of these coins to collectors. Nonetheless, a more transparent pricing system and lower prices overall will no doubt increase the appeal of the series to investors. It will also bring the attention of the collector market back to the older Panda coins, making them even more valuable, especially those with very low mintages.